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Statistical model predicts 270 deaths in Montana



“Town Crier” newsletter – Briefs from the Region (1) – 4/1/20

According to a statistical model from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington—the very same the Trump administration has been using to predict the COVID-19 total death in the U.S—Montana will see some 270 fatalities as a result of COVID-19 as long as current social distancing measures continue to be enforced and practiced by all. At 270 total deaths predicted by the model through Aug. 4, and with no new fatalities after June 19, that figure constitutes roughly 0.025 percent of the entire population, a far cry from early reports of a 3 percent worldwide fatality rate. Relatively speaking, other numbers from the model look favorable for the Treasure State. For example, on the predicted peak date for medical resource strain, April 26, there will be a shortage of 44 ICU beds and a surplus of available general hospital beds, and on April 26 the state will need a total of 103 ventilators; Big Sky, for context, is expected to have four all its own within the next 10 days. Compare those figures to the peak needs of New York State, which predicts a shortage of 10,903 ICU beds and 62,214 general hospital beds, Montanans can indeed feel assured in the states preparedness and ability to safeguard its citizens.

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