By Carli Johnson STAFF WRITER
After an unusually warm start to October, Bozeman is headed for a sharp shift in weather this week, with elevated fire danger giving way to colder temperatures and a chance of snow by the weekend.
A Red Flag Warning was issued Oct. 4 through 8 p.m. Oct. 5 in south central Montana, with a Fire Weather Watch also in effect as warm, dry and windy conditions increase the potential for rapid wildfire growth.
But the summerlike conditions are not expected to last.
Local meteorologist Mike Heard said the rapid change is typical of October in Montana, when the region begins its seasonal transition from summer to winter.
“We’re in the transition phase,” Heard said. “Fall and spring are transition phases, we’re transitioning from summer into winter, and within a week, you can have summer and winter.”
While the temperature swing is common, the highs Bozeman is experiencing are not, with temperatures approaching potential records. Heard said temperatures reaching 80 degrees in October are uncommon, occurring only about 10 or 11 times in the past 20 years in data from Montana State University.
The weather pattern will begin to shift by the end of the week, bringing colder air and increasing moisture into the region.
Heard said early projections indicate that higher elevations, including Big Sky, could receive 6 to 10 inches of snow. However, he cautioned that the forecast remains several days out and could change substantially.
Valley locations are expected to receive less snow, and any accumulation may not last long. Heard said warmer air is expected to follow the incoming cold spell, creating a back-and-forth pattern as Montana moves deeper into fall.
Temperatures could drop dramatically over just a few days. Heard said Friday could bring temperatures in the upper 70s or low 80s, followed by temperatures in the 60s Saturday and the 40s and 50s by Sunday.
“It’s just that time of the year where we get a little bit of everything,” Heard said.
