By Micah Drew DAILY MONTANAN
For the last several years, Montana’s population has swelled as new residents flocked to the state amid the COVID-19 pandemic and and remote work migration, making the Treasure State one of the fastest growing in the country. But according to new data released Dec. 19 by the U.S. Census Bureau, that trend has reversed as Montana’s growth rate continues to decline.
As of July 2024, the federal agency estimates that Montana has a population of 1,137,223, an increase 5,931 from July of 2023.
That’s roughly the equivalent of adding another Columbia Falls or Lewistown to the Treasure State map, but is a steep decrease from the prior year’s increase of more than 9,000 new residents.
The U.S. Census Bureau annual population estimates are produced by extrapolating from the last decennial census and adding births, subtracting deaths, and estimating both international and domestic net migration. County- and city-level population growth data is released every spring.
At the height of the pandemic migration between 2020 and 2021, Montana’s population spiked by nearly 20,000 residents, a nearly 2% growth rate that made the state the second-fastest growing in the country.
The pattern of decline seen since then can be partly attributed to housing scarcity and costs in many of the state’s fastest growing areas such as Bozeman and the Flathead Valley, according to the Montana Department of Commerce.
The 2024 growth rate of 0.52% ranks 37th among U.S. states and lags behind the nation — which grew by 1% — from 2023 to 2024.
An international absence
Jeffrey Michael, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana, told the Daily Montanan that the state’s year-over-year growth rate is the lowest since 2002, and it is the first time in more than a decade that the state’s population has grown slower than the U.S. population.
Michael focused on the Census Data showing that international migration was the primary driver behind the national growth rate and speculated that could be a large factor in Montana’s relative slowdown.
“Montana historically has the lowest levels of international migration in the country, and there was no noticeable change in 2024,” Michael told the Daily Montanan. “I guess it is hard to attribute Montana’s slowdown to the absence of this source of growth, but it certainly is very interesting when comparing to other states where international flows are notably pushing up population.”
Drawing a comparison to Idaho, which was the fastest growing state in 2021 and has remained in the top seven ever since, Michael noted that the neighboring state gained 7,899 international migrants in 2024 compared to Montana’s 506.
Further comparing the two states, while both showed a decrease in domestic migration, Montana’s was much sharper, which Michael hypothesized is “likely due to higher housing costs and the remote-work boom receding. Much of Montana has gotten more expensive than Idaho.”
Since the 2020 Census, which sets a base population rate from April 1, 2020, Montana has gained 53,017 individuals, almost exclusively due to residents moving from other states. Montana had 3,000 more deaths than births during that timeframe, but the difference in birth rate and death rate between 2023 and 2024 was roughly even with 12 more births.
Montana is the 43rd state by population, counting the District of Columbia, having leapfrogged Rhode Island in 2021. The next largest states are Maine, New Hampshire and Hawaii, all with roughly 1.4 million residents.
The District of Columbia grew 2.17% over the last year, followed by Florida at 2.04%. Texas, Utah, South Carolina, Nevada, Idaho and North Carolina all grew at a rate higher than 1.5%.
Texas gained the most new residents, with 562,941, while Mississippi, West Virginia and Vermont all lost several hundred.
