By Darrel Ehrlick DAILY MONTANAN
Money talks, as the old saying goes, and right now it may be telling the story that Republicans are more vulnerable than previously thought, according to fundraising reports and a political scientist.
On Wednesday, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse, who is challenging Republican incumbent Greg Gianforte, announced its campaign had raised more money during the previous quarter than Gianforte, notable for several reasons.
Gianforte, a multi-millionaire, has largely been able to bankroll his own elections to both Congress and the governorship. However, his donations haven’t kept pace with his opponent, who has been hammering on the message of property taxes, which have hit many Treasure State residents hard.
In official campaign finance reports filed with the State of Montana, Busse reports $525,533 raised from June 15 through Aug. 15, not including more than $135,000 it transferred from its primary account to the general election account. In that same period, Gianforte raised $355,404 for the general election but that number does not include $94,302 received for his primary account.
In other words, Busse hauled $170,129 more than Gianforte in the most recent quarter if transfers and primary contributions aren’t counted.
Even though Busse showed larger fund-raising results during the quarter, the incumbent governor still sits on substantially more cash than his Democratic opponent by a wide margin. In the same report, Gianforte reported having $745,819 on hand to Busse’s $234,302.
Paul Pope, associate professor of political science at Montana State University-Billings, said that Busse’s recent fundraising success could be the result of several different influences, including Gianforte’s vulnerability on statewide issues, or the surge of enthusiasm that was created when U.S. President Joe Biden decided to step aside, allowing Vice President Kamala Harris to emerge.
Pope said Gianforte is vulnerable because of the deeply unpopular property increases, despite a program to offer rebates of as much as $675 to homeowners per year.
That decision on property taxes has rankled Republican members of Gianforte’s party as county-level Republicans have been frustrated by Gianforte, who they’ve said has lied about out-of-control spending at the local level. It hasn’t been the first time that Republicans have been alienated by the governor.
“That’s where (Gianforte) is losing people,” Pope said. “The tax cuts and his hype about the property taxes just doesn’t match the follow through.”
Last year, Republicans in the Legislature struck a deal with Democrats on how to allocate funding from recreational marijuana taxes, which included support for veterans and wildlife habitat. That measure was vetoed by Gianforte, which upset many members of his own party, and also led to a protracted legal battle and unsuccessful veto override. That strongly bipartisan deal included additional money for county roads, a perennial challenge for county governments across the state.
Gianforte’s popularity, especially in a state that has trended toward increasingly conservative candidates and a Republican supermajority in the Legislature, has been stalled. Gianforte has consistently showed a neutral favorability rating in a state where every major office holder is a Republican and only one statewide Democrat, incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester faces a tough challenger in Bozeman businessman Tim Sheehy.
“I think Gianforte may be taking for granted who he is — that he’s a Republican in a Republican state,” Pope said.
Pope’s department leads the Mountain States Polling project at MSU-B, which conducted a survey of Montana prior to the primary election, and will conduct another poll this fall in October, closer to Election Day.
He said that the momentum for the Democrats has been positive since Biden stepped aside, Harris’ selection and her selection of Tim Walz. Also, that the topic of abortion is on the ballot could also factor into the fundraising.
“All that energy at the top,” Pope said, “That excitement opens up purse strings. You can feel the energy.”
Still, as successful as one quarter of fund-raising may be for Busse, Pope warned that history is also a powerful indicator, and Democrats have underperformed in statewide races recently. Moreover, Montanans have to be convinced to vote for a Democrat, and that takes an “all-of-the-above strategy,” Pope said.
“The question is: Does Busse have enough time?” Pope said. “He has to use every tool in the arsenal. He’s got to take to the air game with advertisement, the ground game with door knocking and become visible.”
However, he said, the consistently neutral favorability rating of Gianforte, a Republican in a Republican-dominated state recently, spells trouble.
“He’s incredibly vulnerable. He’s not expecting to be, so the question is: Can Busse tap into it?” Pope said. “The Democratic Party has been extremely lackluster in getting good candidates, so many time the good ones are on their own.”
