By Mario Carr EBS CONTRIBUTOR
After a dry, warm January, most of the American West is experiencing the worst snowpack in decades, but the skiing in Big Sky is holding up.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, visible on an interactive map, paints a grim picture of the snowpack across much of the West, but some regions are doing better than others. According to the map as of Feb. 15, Big Sky’s Missouri Headwaters region has a current approximate snowpack that is 82% of its 30-year average, as measured by snow-water equivalent. And looking at the Lone Mountain SNOTEL data, it’s clear that something unique is happening with Big Sky’s snowpack this year.
According to Big Sky Resort’s mountain operations department, as of Feb. 15, the season-to-date snowfall in Big Sky is only 67% of the Feb. 15 average, but notably the snow-water equivalent is at 93%. In essence, despite warm snaps and dry spells, nearly the same amount of water is separating you from the mountain as an average snow year.
Beyond snow-water equivalent, snowpack depth data at the Lone Mountain SNOTEL is available back to 2003. As of Feb. 16, Big Sky Resort’s mid-mountain base depth sits at 39 inches with the help of a 5-inch storm on Feb. 9, plus any additional snowfall during the week of Feb. 16. Since 2003, Big Sky has experienced three other seasons with a shallower base at this point in the season, and in those three years, the snowpack held significantly less SWE.
February 2024, for example, is a near memory for Big Sky skiers, and that season was notably rough until spring brought with it some big storms—still, they felt too little, too late. That year, Lone Mountain’s snowpack was 40 inches deep as of Feb. 16, but the water content in that snowpack measured a few inches less, at 8 inches. Put simply, the snowpack of 2023-24 was neither deep nor dense. This year’s 39-inch base contains 11.7 inches of water which is nearly 50% more water in a very similar snow depth.
This weather trend has been particularly noticeable at Bridger Bowl, where December 2025 precipitation contained a record amount of water—at lower elevations, some of it was rain—totaling 9.05 inches just that month.
Temperature has a lot to do with it. Bozeman has seen average daily high temperatures 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than any other year since 1941, according to reporting by Montana Free Press. Anecdotally, Big Sky has experienced similar warmth, with numerous rainfall events since November and a patchy, thin snowpack at meadow elevation.
Meteorologist Jim Brusda, with the National Weather Service’s office in Great Falls, discussed Big Sky’s winter weather on the phone with EBS. He explained that while temperatures this year have been higher in Montana, precipitation has remained near normal.
“Late November into December we actually had quite a bit of precipitation, but some of it fell in the form of rain… January and February have been relatively dry and mild… You’re just one spring storm away from being back to normal,” Brusda said on Feb. 16, hours after roughly 5 inches of warm, heavy snow fell across Big Sky.
The landscape below the mountains is noticeably brown, but through the lens of skiing, Big Sky Resort’s winter could be a lot worse. Although certain upper-mountain lines aren’t “in” quite yet, and others feel tighter than usual—like the Big Couloir or Headwaters chutes—ski patrol has been able to keep terrain consistently open off of the Lone Peak Tram, despite the warm snaps. Glade skiing has been better at this point during heavier seasons, but the dense texture of this year’s snow is covering debris surprisingly well.
While data can offer snapshots to help us better understand what is happening on the mountain, it doesn’t paint the whole picture as to the quality of the skiing and the unique conditions that this season has provided already. If spring-like storms in late February, March and April do send the winter ski season out with a bang, as predicted months ago by The Old Farmer’s Almanac, Big Sky’s skiing could improve rapidly as new snow falls onto a more solid base that’s been able to weather a warmer winter.
