By Jack Reaney SENIOR EDITOR 

Big Sky is poised for strong visitation this upcoming winter, especially in the month of March, according to Visit Big Sky research.  

“All numbers, all indicators are showing that we’re going to have a fantastic winter,” Visit Big Sky CEO Brad Niva said in a phone call with EBS. He noted that Mother Nature “didn’t get the memo,” but the late-November weather outlook is finally looking snowy. “Once we hit the holidays and onward, we see really good occupancy rates throughout the rest of the winter.” 

On Nov. 13, Niva presented the latest data to the Resort Tax board. Coming up on Dec. 4, Visit Big Sky will host its annual winter marketing outlook brunch for a deeper dive into the data. The event is open to the public with registration available online.  

Compared to last year’s pre-season projections, hotel and short-term rental bookings are very similar. The overall occupancy rate from November to April is projected at 30% as of Oct. 31, just one tick below last year’s Oct. 31 prediction of 31%, which materialized as 58% occupancy due to mid-winter bookings.  

Since COVID, travelers have shifted from booking three to four months in advance, to now booking five or six weeks in advance, which means these projections are likely to change over time—last year, actual occupancy jumped by 12% to 41% per month compared to the October projection. 

“We’re pacing very close to last year, but it is still going to be interesting,” Niva said in his Nov. 13 presentation, noting the warm, dry stretch of weeks heading into ski season. “We’re going to see a little difference in our booking window right this moment.”  

Niva showed a graph of monthly occupancy since May 2025 at 16 Mountain West destinations including Aspen and Vail, Colorado; Jackson Hole, Wyoming; Park City, Utah; and Lake Tahoe, California. Big Sky was among the top five destinations in occupancy for most months, but occupancy lagged significantly below the top location every month.  

“We’re pacing behind four or five of the most popular ski resorts,” Niva said, reviewing past months. “And as we look forward into the next six months, the red line [Big Sky] is a lot closer to the top. So we’re actually pacing pretty good… Big Sky’s bookings are strong compared to the rest of the industry.”   

Big Sky currently leads for March 2026. “We always have a really strong spring break business,” he explained. “But then as you see in April, we just rock-bottom tank it.” 

As of Oct. 31, Big Sky’s April occupancy rate is projected at 6%. Last year, the April projection was 12%, and six months later, materialized at 40%.  

Niva continues to emphasize the pitfalls of “the Big Sky rollercoaster,” when occupancy rates fluctuate between approximately 80% and 20%, depending on the time of year.  

Big Sky, big bills 

It’s expensive to sleep here. Big Sky’s average nightly room rates are projected to crush last year’s data.  

Since May 2025, average nightly fare has been $650, compared to $554 year-over-year. Looking ahead until April 2026, the projected average is $788, compared to last year’s average—from November 2024 to April 2025—of $654. 

Niva said surprisingly, this shift does not account for the newly opened “ultra-luxury” One&Only Moonlight Basin resort, which will further bolster the average.  

These rates would be unprecedented. “I have an opinion that our hotels are a little bullish and they’re shooting for a really high average nightly rate,” Niva said.  

One concern for Big Sky tourism, he explained, is Big Sky’s “very high-end, luxury product” and potential to price out less-wealthy families.  

“There’s certainly concern that we may be out-pricing the market, and it’s certainly something that we’re sensitive to,” Niva told EBS. But for now, consumers are willing to foot the bill. 

America’s current “K-shaped” economic trend creates a “bifurcated customer” where high-income Americans are enjoying faster wage increases compared to slower wage growth for low-income counterparts. Lower class Americans are spending less, but among high-wealth households, consumer confidence and increased spending favors expensive products like Big Sky.  

“So when you look at the luxury product that we have, it’s actually not a bad place to be right now because that luxury consumer is spending money,” Niva told the board. Park City, Utah, has a similar challenge, “and they’re looking hopeful for their next season as well.”  

Per Visit Big Sky data comparing 2024 and 2023, Big Sky hosted 6.2% more overnight visitors, at 411,784, who spent 3.6% more, at $450.3 million. By contrast, 2019 visitors spent less than half, totaling $213.5 million. Visitor spending has grown by 16.1% each year since 2019.  

Niva presented local data tracking Visa credit cards, a dataset used by Visit Big Sky’s research contractor, Blue Room Research.   

Through August 2025, Visa card spending in Big Sky has been 7.1% stronger than 2024. Domestic spending dominates, with $47.9 million in Visa spending through August—international Visa spending was only $1.2 million.  

“International continues to grow,” Niva explained. “But at the same time, if you look at [international] card counts, they’re minuscule compared to our domestic travelers. So domestic continues to be our biggest strength.” 

According to billing zip code, Bozeman is Big Sky’s largest market, followed by the greater New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston areas. Bozeman brought nearly six-times as many Visa cards as New York City, but only roughly double the total spend through August.  

“We’re putting more effort into tapping into markets where that particular visitor spends more, stays longer,” Niva told EBS.  

He highlights recent national travel media, resulting from years of work “planting a seed and watering it” to share Big Sky’s story with the world, especially key markets like New York City. This fall, Big Sky earned “a grand slam” with high marks from SKI Magazine, Condé Nast Traveler and Expedia.  

Internationally, Big Sky’s largest markets are Canada, Australia and the U.K., respectively. A direct flight to Bozeman from Miami could enable significant uptick in South American visitors, Niva added.  

During the presentation, Resort Tax board chair Sarah Blechta asked if Visa data properly reflects international visitors, who may use other credit cards. While many of Big Sky’s visitors use American Express, which does not sell its data, Niva believes Visa data offers a sufficient sample size. “This is true, rock-solid transactional data,” he said. 

Niva said the data underscores the importance of attracting visitors to Big Sky.  

Visa data between 2021 and 2024 showed that Big Sky residents spent between 17% and 22% of the community’s total annual spending, with Bozeman residents counted as visitors.  

“If we as an economy and a town did not have visitors, our town could not function as it is,” Niva said. “… Our restaurants couldn’t stay open, our retailers would be challenged if we were all just dependent on our residents to support our economy.”  

Still, a 2023 study of 494 residents showed that 44% felt the community was moving in the “wrong direction” versus 30% in “neutral” and 17% in the “right direction.” Negative sentiments including rapid overdevelopment and “greed,” lack of affordable housing, traffic congestion and environmental impacts, and an experience that “caters too much to the ultra-wealthy and elite crowds rather than regular families,” the summary stated.  

Niva believes the 2023 study captured some COVID-related frustration, and he looks forward to conducting a new study beginning in January 2026 to make sure tourism is welcomed, and residents feel heard.  

“A lot of our residents were kind of turned off by tourism,” he recalled. “… Overall, the visitors were very happy, so I want to make sure our residents are happy as well.”