Outlaw Realty recaps 2025, looks forward to 2026 housing market
OUTLAW REALTY
The 2026 real estate market is off to an encouraging start across both Bozeman and Big Sky, with renewed momentum after several transitional years. In Bozeman, newly under-contract homes in January rose 13.7% year over year, outperforming the past three Januarys. Supply also is on the rise with 12% more inventory at the end of month than January 2025.
In Big Sky, January saw a three-year monthly high for closed sales, with newly under-contract properties also up 11% year over year. At the same time, inventory levels are on the rise with monthly new listings up nearly 26%. and pricing has moderated from peak levels, creating a more balanced and dynamic marketplace.
With sales activity picking up, more homes available to choose from, and mortgage rates expected to gradually decline, buyers are entering 2026 with greater flexibility and opportunity. Together, these factors are setting the stage for what could be a strong and active year in the regional real estate market.
Bozeman: A rebalancing
In Bozeman, 2025 slightly outperformed a 13-year low in residential sales in 2024. According to data shared by Outlaw Realty, modest year-over-year sales growth was accompanied by a 2.6% increase in new listings and a rise in days on market.
“Bozeman feels more stable because the fundamentals are re-aligning in a healthy way,” said EJ Daws, managing broker at Outlaw Realty. “Buyers are taking time, negotiating again, and making thoughtful decisions, while sellers are still benefiting from values that remain near historic highs. That combination shows us that the Bozeman market is disciplined.”
Single-family median prices dipped just 0.5% in 2025, while condos and townhomes declined approximately 1.1%, a small correction following several years of rapid appreciation. Daws noted that this moderation mirrors trends seen across Western lifestyle and university-driven markets, but Bozeman stands out for how limited the pullback has been.
“What makes Bozeman unique is how shallow the correction has been,” he said. “This hasn’t been a value reset; it’s been a recalibration.”
Several underlying factors continue to support long-term demand: a strong presence from neighboring Montana State University, steady population growth in Gallatin Valley, remote-work flexibility and ongoing expansion at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport. Together, these fundamentals have helped the market maintain pricing resilience even as transaction volume adjusts.
January data shows a promising rebound, with new pending sales up 13.7% year-over-year and continuing a steady three-year climb back toward pre-COVID activity levels. Notably, buyer interest returned strongly to the single-family segment, with newly pending single-family homes up 67% for the month. A key driver of renewed momentum appears to be mortgage rates; in January, the 30-year fixed rate dropped to a three-year low of 6.11%.
Buyer interest was further supported by an increase in available inventory and a broader pullback in pricing. January saw a 60% month-over-month increase in new listings—predominantly single-family homes—and a 12% year-over-year increase in end-of-month inventory. Median sales price declined 8% month-over-month and was notably down 15% compared to January of last year.
For buyers, this normalization has created opportunity. Increased inventory and longer days on market have reopened the door to negotiation, particularly in entry-level segments like condos and townhomes.
“We are seeing this right now at a brokerage level, where longtime sidelined buyers are waking up and getting active in the market,” Daws said.
For sellers however, the landscape requires precision, Daws explained. Presenting a well-positioned home is critical.
Homeowners who purchased within the past five years remain in favor. Despite modest price adjustments, values are still near historic highs. Refinancing activity has been limited primarily because many owners secured historically low interest rates earlier in the cycle, but selling remains viable.
The most telling data point is the return to balance itself.
“The increase in inventory and days on market without meaningful erosion of pricing tells us Bozeman is becoming more livable and sustainable,” Daws said. “That’s healthier for the community as a whole.”
Big Sky: A growing global luxury market
It’s been an interesting start to the winter selling season. With low snow accumulation across much of the West, there was some early concern that buyer activity might slow.
“Big Sky has fared better than most, and we’ve actually seen increased interest from buyers coming from other ski destinations,” explained Michael Pitcairn, broker with Outlaw Realty.
Q4 of 2025 saw a surge of activity spilling over into January, 2026. Fourth quarter 2025 sales were up 25% year-over-year while January sales were up 80% year-over-year and marking the highest monthly sales figure since April 2022.
While median pricing in Big Sky can fluctuate significantly month-to-month due to variations in product type, ranging from new construction to hotel-affiliated residences and private club properties, overall pricing has trended upward. Increased amenities at Big Sky Resort and the presence of globally recognized hotel brands have further bolstered the area’s profile.
“We’re seeing historic highs in some of the private club individual neighborhoods, while there are still pockets of value within those areas,” Pitcairn said. “Outside of the club environment, we’ve experienced more gradual appreciation following the post-COVID reset.”
Total sales volume in 2025 remained similar to 2024 and was approximately 23% higher than in 2023, an indicator of sustained demand and long-term confidence in the Big Sky community. Strong activity benefits both sides of the transaction.
“For buyers, it reinforces that they are purchasing in a stable, desirable market,” Pitcairn said. “For sellers, if a home is not receiving showings or offers, it’s often an indication that pricing, presentation, or marketing strategy may need to be reconsidered.”
Looking ahead into 2026
Both brokers point to interest rates, inventory levels, and buyer re-entry as key variables to watch in 2026.
“If 2025 was about resetting expectations, 2026 feels like a year where confidence returns,” Daws said. Even modest declines in mortgage rates could meaningfully improve buying power and unlock demand from households already committed to living in the Gallatin Valley.
In Big Sky, Pitcairn agrees that the momentum the market is experiencing deserves attention.
“If current trends continue, this year has the potential to be one of our strongest in recent years,” he said.
For a region known for its quality of life, outdoor recreation and growing cultural calendar, data suggests a steady path forward for buyers, sellers and home owners in the Gallatin Valley and Big Sky area. After a period of recalibration, both thriving communities appear positioned not for retreat, but for a measured, resilient next chapter in their real estate evolution.
EJ Daws and Michael Pitcairn are brokers for Outlaw Realty. The Outlaw Realty team brings more than 30+ years of combined market expertise, along with deep community connections. This experience is vital in helping buyers and sellers navigate a complex, evolving market with confidence and clarity. Eli Kretzmann, sales associate for Outlaw Realty, contributed reporting in this article.
