Despite economic and international concerns, airport expects another record year
By Jen Clancey STAFF WRITER
Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport estimates that 1,485,151 passengers will board planes from Bozeman in 2026, projecting another record after 2025, and a 5.6% increase in enplanements. The airport announced its projection on March 12, and shared that despite economic concerns domestically and abroad, numbers are expected to reflect the hub’s continued growth.
Brian Sprenger, president and CEO of Bozeman Airport, shared that staff are closely watching economic factors like disposable income, the stock market, job market and “potential recessionary indicators that could impact discretionary travel purchases,” in an email to EBS.
Relations abroad and the Iran war could also continue to impact travel in and out of Bozeman in 2026.
“These factors include the war with Iran, fuel prices and generally poor relations between the U.S. and other countries, particularly countries that in the past have populations that previously desired to visit the U.S.,” Sprenger stated.
Concerns about gas prices have already begun to ripple through the U.S., as drivers see the average fill-up jump higher than $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, according to AP News’ Wyatte Grantham Phillips reporting on AAA numbers. As of March 6, the national average cost per gallon is $4.116, but Montana is lower, seeing just under $3.80 per gallon. AP News’ Phillips reports that the Iran war has strongly impacted the supply chain of crude oil, including major cuts to production and high demand for oil elsewhere.
The consequences for airlines are showing up in reported flight cuts and potential price hikes for passengers. Airlines are also bracing for fuel bills to be billions of dollars higher than years prior. On March 30 for instance, Reuters reported that United Airlines expects an additional $11 billion in jet fuel costs in 2026.
Sprenger outlined how costs could reflect Bozeman passenger numbers and travel demand.
“The most significant potential impact we are closely watching is tied to airline fuel costs due to the Iran war. As fuel costs go up, the potential for increased fares and decreased capacity by airlines becomes more of a factor nationally and worldwide,” Sprenger stated. “The longer the higher fuel costs remain, the more likely overall travel demand and capacity will decrease, including to locations such as BZN. While we believe our impact may be less than some destinations, we are not immune to these significant impacts on travel demand.”
BZN still ‘bullish’ in market, expect projections to demonstrate continued growth
Despite economic challenges, Bozeman Airport predicted travel to continue growing in 2026 due to expanded flight options and ongoing demand in U.S. cities, as reflected in 2025 end-of-year stats.
“The [2025] increase was due to several factors including increased competition in several markets including Seattle, Chicago and Boston. The June through October 2025 performance was particularly strong. For the rest of the year, we saw a maturing market with more moderate growth,” the March 12 news release stated.
In 2026, summer season inbound travel will likely “positively impact” the airport, including increased service from San Diego, and new services to Phoenix, Arizona, and Austin, Texas. Bozeman Airport also expects to see growth in travel from Atlanta, Chicago, and the New York City area. These growth areas often show competition between airlines, especially in the Seattle area, where Delta and Alaska hit a year of service offerings between Bozeman and the Pacific Northwest city.
“That being said, we remain relatively bullish on our market and continue to expect BZN to be one of the fastest growing airports in the nation,” the release continued. “We hope these projections by airport management will give some guidance for calendar year 2026 expectations, however, all projections are based on the information available as of March 10, 2026 and could change throughout the year.”
